{"id":104432,"date":"2023-11-28T08:09:31","date_gmt":"2023-11-28T13:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/\/?p=104432"},"modified":"2023-11-28T08:51:54","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T13:51:54","slug":"the-global-polysilicon-market-is-entering-another-severe-oversupply-situation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/2023\/11\/the-global-polysilicon-market-is-entering-another-severe-oversupply-situation\/","title":{"rendered":"The global polysilicon market is entering another severe oversupply situation"},"content":{"rendered":"
After facing a shortage during the last two years, the global polysilicon market will enter an oversupply situation in 2024, according to information from Bernreuter Research and the “Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027<\/a>” report released today.<\/p>\n Credit: NorSun<\/p><\/div>\n Chinese polysilicon market leader Tongwei will usher in a phase of fierce competition in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cTongwei is planning to bring 575,000 tons of new production capacity on stream next year, whereas we expect a market growth of 200,000 tons at most,\u201d says Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research and author of the report.<\/p>\n The polysilicon shortage in 2021 and 2022, which drove the spot price up to almost $40\/kg, has lured many Chinese aspirants into the industry. The new report from Bernreuter Research screens 36 companies; among them, 14 have started to construct or already have ramped up a new polysilicon plant. Besides Tongwei, however, other leading manufacturers have also expanded production.<\/p>\n \u201cIf all new capacities were ramped up in 2024, oversupply would swell to 1.4 million tons,\u201d says Bernreuter. \u201cWith its low manufacturing costs and proven product quality, Tongwei will push most, if not all, new entrants out of the market.\u201d<\/p>\n The Top 10 polysilicon manufacturers<\/a> according to actual output in 2022 were:<\/p>\n Bernreuter Research expects this shakeout will eliminate a capacity of up to 2,400,000 metric tons (MT), compared to 275,000 MT during the second wave shakeout \u2013 from 2018 through 2020 \u2013 and 135,000 MT during the first \u2013 between late 2010 and early 2013<\/a>. For 2024, Bernreuter expects the polysilicon price to undercut the all-time low of $6.75\/kg reached in June 2020.<\/p>\n While China\u2019s share in the global polysilicon output will further increase to 90% in 2023 (to even 92.5% in solar-grade material), the non-Chinese manufacturers Wacker, OCI, Hemlock Semiconductor and REC Silicon should remain mostly exempt from the shakeout. The reason for that is the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act<\/a> in the United States, which bans products from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China. The legislation has created a separate, higher-price market for non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers, which do not use silicon metal from Xinjiang as feedstock.<\/p>\n<\/a>
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